As you know, I am a fan of the old stock market axiom that numbers don’t lie, people (with agendas) do. So I have been looking to the numbers, not the press releases, to tell us what to expect next.  Real Estate 101 tells us its all about supply and demand, not sound bites and catch-phrases.  In September 2007, right after the National Association of Realtors and the Builders trade group launched their “NOW is the time to buy” ad campaign, I said this:

Sorry, but to the average Jane homebuyer out there, the Association of Realtors and the Builders sitting on loads of inventory are not the greatest, most credible source for, shall we say, unbiased information. They want houses to sell, NOW… But, candidly, it may get worse before it gets better.  Anyone who tells you they know for sure that NOW IS THE TIME to buy… well, I’d say “run Forrest, run”, away, as fast as you can. I’m not going all negative here, but call me a realist.

Of course, as we know, even as they launched that campaign, sales continued to dry up, inventory exploded and prices dropped precipitously. We will give them some credit, maybe they were just a little “early”.

Anyway, as I’ve told anyone who would listen, we are struggling to find a bottom and have been somewhere in the lower part of a “U”-shaped bottom for months now. So as I looked at this month’s market data, my analysis gave me a glimmer of hope. Months of Inventory is at the lowest point since Fall of 2007, and has been reduced by a staggering 44.3% since January alone.  That’s a big number.

As important, March Y/Y Months of Inventory saw the first reduction since August, 2005. Read that again, I’ll wait. It’s been almost four years of continually advancing inventory ratios. That was one of the primary formulas I used when telling my agents in September, 2005 that we were forming a top in the market. Price appreciation continued for several more months, but we ultimately “saw the other side of the mountain” and have lived and breathed the new market realities that eventually developed.

Look, I’m not an economist, I’m using math learned in public schools, and all this is simply my interpretation from an “on the ground” perspective. But, I think we may finally be getting our arms around the inventory issues.  There WILL likely be another (smaller) wave of short-sales and foreclosures, and that will continue to work negatively on values.  Pricing depreciation may continue - albeit much more slowly - for a while, but the bottom in values will follow the bottom in inventory and then we can get back to some semblance of normalcy in the real estate market. Not rocketing appreciating nor plummeting values… a simple, equitable, manageable, sustainable and therefore healthy market.

If this doesn’t come to pass, look for my crystal ball for sale on eBay soon.

While Months of Inventory (of houses for sale) was down January to February, it was up year-over-year/February. There’s enough real estate data points, ratios and percentages to give anybody wiggle room to spin this report. Really, with enough paint, you can paint this report any color you’d like… as for me, my favorite color has always been transparent.  I know lots of folks can simply throw out the numbers. And while that is the easiest way to get information into the public’s eye, I prefer to dig a little deeper and look at those same numbers from multiple, transparent, perspectives.

Most importantly, where will the Vancouver Clark County real estate market go from here? As a reminder, Months of Inventory (MOI) is defined by dividing the Active Listings at the end of that month by the Number of Closed Sales during that month [Active/Closed]. In my humble opinion, MOI is a key indicator of where we are at and where we are going.  Says something about supply and demand.  I guess that’s important economic mumbo-jumbo.

With MOI in the Vancouver Clark County real estate market standing at 18.6 months in February, it was a 11.4% decrease in MOI from January (yay!), sounds good right?  Sure, but February historically has a decrease in MOI from January.  Problem being that when you consider the average MOI decrease over the past two years from January to February was more than 17%, it doesn’t smell as pretty. Basically, while we decreased MOI January to February, we did it at a slower than historical rate.  In technical jargon, that’s called a bummer.  Still with me?

OK. So we get that the reduction in MOI was slower January to February this year than in the past, that’s just one number.  While I agree, lets continue digging.  Unless you’ve been living under a rock (whereby you’d have little concern about the time it takes to sell a house) you know that MOI has been increasing year over year for the past three years.  More importantly to me is the rate of increase.  For the last four months of 2008, the average year-over-year increase in MOI was 21.2% - that by itself is a BIG number.  Problem is that in January, that number grew to 23.5% and in February, it was 27.4% - Yikes!  While the Law of Large Numbers says it can’t go on this way forever, the year-over-year MOI number is still expanding. Not a good thing.

Back to my question… where do we need to go from here?  Please understand, I bought my crystal ball off of eBay, so I’m not saying its perfect.  But here’s what I’d look for in the March report.  I’d like to see the MOI for Vancouver Clark County in the 14.6-14.9 range (or less, of course!).  One, that would gain some positive traction for decreasing the historical February to March MOI reductions; and two, that would reverse the trend of expanding year-over-year percentage increases back below the number from the past three months. Now really, while I’d like to see that number at about 7.5, I’d simply take movement in the right direction for  now.

I know, them there’s a lot of numbers. And while I may come across as the boogie-man on a scary Friday, I really do think we are searching for a bottom. I talked before about not buying the rah-rah hype.  But, I believe we are finally closer to the bottom than we are the top. The last three offers I’ve written for clients all had multiple offers on the house. Pricing numbers are well on their way to returning to the historical trendline. We’ll likely continue to have an influx of short-sale and repo/REO inventory that will keep a lid on an explosive bounce from the bottom, but if trading stocks for six years in a previous life taught me anything, I know that no one rings a bell when it’s time to buy.

So while it may be scary out there, it’s always darkest before the dawn.

One of the things I tell my home selling clients all the time is that we want the buyer to stay as long as possible during their visit. Heck, hope they pull up a chair and start redesigning the kitchen and then measure the living room to see if their sectional will fit.  All this bodes well for the seller, as the potential buyer starts to see how this house can become their home.

But, when it’s near freezing inside, well the warm and fuzzy feeling that’s hoped for fades and becomes a wanton dash for the car’s heated seats. (And, yes, that is a REAL picture I took from inside a house here in Vancouver during a showing last week…).

I understand - especially with some vacant short-sale and pre-foreclosure listings - the home may not have power. But if a seller, be it a bank with a REO property or a homeowner trying to salvage a sale before the worst-case scenario kicks in, really wants to enhance the opportunity to sell the house, spend a couple of bucks a month to at least keep the temps above the point where Jello sets.

I’m not asking for the staged smell of fresh-baked cookies, but the ability to hold an indoor conversation without the chatter of teeth and a serious concern for the onset of frostbite would be helpful.

Until then, I’ll make sure I have my new real estate agent showing toolkit - a lockbox key, my parka and a portable heater - for this weekends showings. Of course, if you’re looking for a hot deal in the Vancouver Clark County real estate market, let us know… we promise our service won’t leave you IN in the cold.

I tell my selling clients all the time - finding the buyer is actually the easy part (although it has gotten to be a tad more challenging in the past year).  The hard part is keeping the deal on track and getting it to the closing table so a seller can actually maximize that equity.

Just try cashing an “offer” at the bank.

It’s that expertise in managing a deal that truly defines the value in the listing expense.  Sure, marketing costs money, nowadays lots of it.  But marketing (or MLS exposure) alone is not going to get it done.

Why this discourse?

I subscribe to a local real estate “forum” where folks post ideas, comments, deals, etc… I find it amazing that people will turn to anonymous posters - with varied agendas, experiences and perspectives - for advice on how to handle contract negotiations. Earlier this week, an email to the anonymous group was peppered with…

“Is it feasible…”
“Do any of you folks have suggestions for me…”
“I have a plan on counteroffering. Open to your ideas and experiences!”
“Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated!”

Seriously.  These are actual statements.  From a seller who had the house “listed”, but had no/limited “representation”.  And this level of uncertainty is at the offer stage… what happens going through contract negotiation of terms and conditions, disclosure, inspection, underwriting, appraisal, title, escrow, etc…

Look, don’t get me wrong, I don’t fault someone for trying to save money, especially in this economy. But the premise of penny-wise and pound… well, you know the one I’m talking about.

The offer was $70,000 below the asking price.  I’ve talked again and again about whether this List Price was even correct to start with. But regardless, with that type of discrepancy and that level of uncertainty, the money spent of securing solid, experienced representation of a seller’s best interest in a transaction of this magnitude can not be undervalued.

But hey, I’m smart enough to admit I may be a tad bit biased in my viewpoint.

I’m talking, specifically, about those two words sellers fear and buyers expect “Price Reduced”.

It doesn’t HAVE to be that way though.  I’ve recently had the chance to dig deep into some data.  I did a dissection of some Real Estate stats from the Vancouver, Clark County real estate market during September, 2008 that puts a huge exclamation point on the old adage “Priced right is half Sold!”

I took a detailed look at the sold Single Family Residential homes in September, 2008, specifically looking for correlation between Sales Price and Days on Market.  The results were nothing short of startling.

Of these sales transactions, 27.4% sold in less than 30 days,  I found this to be a surprisingly high number, based on the current state of the market.  Additionally, nearly one-third (32.7%) of the transactions took 100 or more days to sell, a number I thought would be higher.  But then I remembered: this data was based on the now-modified concept of “Current Days on Market” - which only defined market time based on the most recent active listing for that property (vs. Total or Cumulative Days on Market - which is, get this, based on the cumulative days on market…). Anyhow, I recently dissected this change and what it means to time on market.

More to the point, however, was the Pricing aspect of all this.  Get this:

Of the homes that sold in 30 days or less, the Sales Price was, on average, a miniscule 0.44% discount to the original asking Price… in other words, over 99.5 Cents on the Dollar to their asking price. Wow.

But, as always, there are folks who start out high, hoping for the best, before the reality of the market pulls the rug out from underneath them.  Of the folks who sold with a “Current” Days on Market time of over 120 days, their selling price was, on average, a whopping 14.61% drop from their original asking price.  And with an average current DOM for these folks of 193.3 days (yes, almost seven months)… well, I bet they wish they had just priced it right to start with.

Again, it seems a house - priced right - is half sold. Especially houses for sale in today’s Vancouver and Clark County real estate market. Assuming you had already eliminated dart-throwing or pulling a number out of a hat as the best way to price a house for sale, for more in-depth analysis and a well-thought out selling strategy I know a guy who can figure out how to put two halves together and get a house sold.

Recently, we noticed some real estate listings that simply looked too good to be true.  I mean, I realize short-sales are all the rage, and there have been some screamin’ real estate deals for smart buyers out there.  But the “List Price” on some of these left me scratchin’ my head and searchin’ for my checkbook.  (Right, like I could have done any damage with the latter of the two, but I digress).

First, some school: List Price is defined as a published or advertised retail price of something that can often be discounted by the seller, or a basic published or advertised price, often subject to discount, or even the price at which a product is usually sold to the public.

In all of these definitions, it is an established price, and for the most part, one which a buyer can assume is somewhat negotiable.  Of course, normally - and especially in this market - one would assume the negotiations could generate a reduction from the list price. But there’s the rub. In a questionable marketing ploy, some listings seem to have been priced to simply generate buyer leads.

Sure, there have been real, stupid-cheap real estate deals out there (usually with some big strings attached), but in some cases, listings seem priced simply to pull buyers out of the woodwork, with no true intent to sell at that price.

Well, now according to the MLS for Vancouver, “Listing a property at a lower price than what your seller is willing to accept is a violation of RMLS™ Rules and Regulations (see section 8.5).  Properties listed for less than the seller will accept obviously attract attention because they are literally too good to be true.  Enticing buyers with false information is unethical.” (emphasis mine).

Good. The last thing we need is bait and switch, loss leader tricks in this business. From now on, when you see that house on Craigslist, priced tens of thousands below market value, think twice, and then give me a call or shoot me an email… we’ll get the real story, and you won’t have to worry about being fodder for P.T. Barnum’s historical phrase. (which, by the way, did you know he never actually said…)

Let’s not have today become the forgotten holiday. Too many people died face down in the mud so we could live our lives in freedom.  Sure, there are days when we may be frustrated with work or our government leaders or other complexities of life; but we live in a country where we have freedoms that billions of others world-wide only long for.  When you think of that, it provides more meaning to the day.  This morning, as our family discussed the reality of what today meant, especially to our kids (besides a mid-week day out of school), my ten year old shared this poem he had written.

V - Victorious soldiers leave the war;

E - Eleventh Day, Hour, and Month;

T - Together, America stands;

E - Even in Iraq;

R - Ready we are, again and again;

A - Another soldier home, hooray, hooray;

N - No more war to come near;

S - So long, war, so long.

It is imperative that we share the stories of the sacrifices of those who have gone before us with those who come after us.  When I think about it, I realize my ability to write this blog, to speak my mind, to even live as I choose, is an indirect result of the sacrifices made by those before me who stood firm in support of our country and our freedoms.

Mankind must put an end to war before war puts an end to mankind.

John F. Kennedy

For myself, and for those who come after me, to all you Veterans, THANK YOU.

Mercifully, we are down to the final hours of a 700+ day election campaign.  And two things come to mind.

First, ever thought it strange that someone campaigns two solid years for a position that may only last four years.  Doesn’t seem like a very good ROI there… just sayin’.

And secondly, is there any more appropriate ending of a word for what these election cycles put us through than camPAIN.  Pardon the Freudian slip on the spelling.

Anyway, as most of us will be away from the TV, (again, maybe mercifully?) throughout the day, I came across a great set of links, courtesy of Mashable, that might help you stay on top of it via the web.

Electoral Map Projections

270ToWin.com - To win the election a candidate needs 270 electoral votes; this site shows you what the current projections are.  Breaks down polls, runs simulations and gives you a detailed history on how each state has voted.

Electoral-Vote.com - A map of the electoral votes that is updated daily with the newest data on how the states are breaking down.

ElectoralMap.net - This map is based off of the Intrade prediction market and can be backed up to May of 2008 to see how the map keeps changing.

FiveThirtyEight.com - 538 refers to the total number of electoral votes that are up for grab and the site provides a standard breakdown of how they see the electoral votes turning out, as well as news and in-depth analysis of possible election scenarios dependent on various factors.

Politico.com - The Politico’s map shows you the latest polling data, focusing heaviest on the states that are still too close to call and how they may swing to decide this election.

Poll Tracking

Gallup.com - The election 2008 poll results from Gallup, one of the best known polling companies.

Pollster.com - Tracks various polls and gives you updated charts on how each candidate is tracking.  Also offers an electoral map as well as analysis of what each poll means.

RealClearPolitics.com - Features poll breakdowns by state. You can also see a national overview that shows you which candidate is in the lead in each state and by how many points.

USAElectionPolls.com - Brings together information on national and state polls, battleground polls, house & senate polls, and more.

So there you go. Knock yourself out.

I have to admit, I have nearly abandoned twitter and facebook over the past week, as I grew weary of the non-stop, unproductive, fur that was flying on the web.  Don’t get me wrong, I took Political Science in college, and at one point, I was completely, unabashedly enamored of the political process. Big-time. It’s just a different political landscape out there now.

Despite that landscape, and regardless of who you decide to vote for, please, at least exercise your right to do so.

I have to admit though, the “dead clown in the garden” problem just hasn’t happened.  I guess I should consider myself truly fortunate.

So in the spirit of Halloween (nice play on words, huh?), here’s one of my favorite real estate videos.

Honestly, if I were these buyers, I would be more terrified about how the agent continually changes the subject and ignores his concerns than I would be about the “foreboding sense of evil”.

But hey, if you are looking for a house nowadays, congratulations… you definitely don’t scare easily.  And we should talk, because I can help make sure your purchase doesn’t become a nightmare.

Days on Market (how long it takes a home to sell in the Vancouver/Clark County market) jumped from 75 in September, 2007 to 146 in September, 2008, a 94.7% jump, at least according to the details in the way the Columbian reported the September number.  Yikes!

Now, as Paul Harvey used to say, the rest of the story.

Because of the recent challenges in the market, RMLS (the multiple listing service that includes Vancouver, Clark County and Southwest Washington) changed the way they calculated Days on Market (DOM).  The move seemed focused on changing seller’s “expectations” of how long it takes to sell.

The old way, a representation of the current listing DOM, was determined based on only the most recent real estate listing. Where the new “Total” Market Time, reflects the cumulative number of days on the market, including those from a previous real estate listing (so long as the house wasn’t off the market for more than 31 days in between).

Clear as Mud Pie?

Regardless of the complexity of the definitions and massaging of numbers, the new way is actually a much better reflection of the time it takes to sell a home.

Days on Market is a key factor in a listing, especially to buyers. Our free home search service on our site www.search360homes.com allows buyers to sort their search based on time on market, and in conjunction with our daily updates, is a great way to stay on top of the what’s new (or old, if you so desire) on the market.

For kicks, I searched our site and with a little sleuthing found that the “oldest” currently active home on the market has been for sale for 756 days, and counting.  Yes, Seven Hundred Fifty Six.  That’s a lot of time to make mud pies.